Tufts Study Warns Rent Control Could Wipe Out $300 Billion in Prop Values; Crushing MA Town Budgets

March 17, 2026

247 Washington Street, Revere MA

Special Joint Committee Hearing Today Set to Hear From Opposition of Ballot

Boston — Ahead of a Special Joint Committee hearing at the Massachusetts State House today, March 17, 2026, on legislation opposing the proposed rent control ballot question, a new research study released late last week finds that, if approved by voters, the measure could reduce Massachusetts property values by an estimated $300 billion. The report warns that such a decline would place significant strain on municipal budgets, potentially forcing local leaders to either scale back essential services or substantially increase local tax rates.

The report, commissioned by the Greater Boston Real Estate Board and conducted by the Tufts Center for State Policy Analysis, concludes that if the 2026 rent control ballot measure were to pass, every municipality in the Commonwealth could experience what the study describes as a “negative and permanent impact” on both local governments and homeowners.

“Rent control would impact the finances of everyone who calls Massachusetts home, and this study highlights the very real challenges facing each of our 351 cities and towns,” said Greg Vasil, CEO of the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, which commissioned the independent analysis. “The findings indicate that mayors, city councils, and other local leaders could face significant budget shortfalls if this proposal becomes law. That could mean difficult decisions—whether reducing funding for police, fire protection, schools, or infrastructure, or increasing local tax rates to offset the lost revenue.”

“These findings are hardly surprising. For more than fifty years, rent control has reared itself again and again as a temptingly simple, yet ultimately self-defeating solution to a complex housing market problem. To lower housing costs, the government should facilitate the production of housing units, rather than discourage it by limiting the ability of housing developers to realize a return on their investment,” said Mayor Jon Mitchell of New Bedford. “What is especially ominous about the proposed ballot question is that it applies not just to the red-hot Boston housing market, but everywhere else in the Commonwealth. In Greater New Bedford and other regions where housing developers at times struggle to make their numbers work, it would effectively shut down housing production.”

Rent control, supported by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu—the most prominent elected official backing the ballot effort—has gained momentum with endorsements from organized labor groups, including the Massachusetts Teachers Association and the SEIU Massachusetts State Council. If approved, the proposal would limit annual rent increases to 5% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower, across every municipality in the Bay State. Governor Maura Healey has voiced opposition to the measure, arguing that rent control would discourage housing production and drive investment out of Massachusetts in the midst of a housing crisis.

Vasil agrees with the governor’s assessment, pointing to examples in other cities. “She’s right,” he proclaimed, citing the case of St. Paul, where voters approved a 3% cap on annual rent increases in 2021. “They’re now considering similar policies in Minneapolis, but the results in St. Paul have already proven to be a disaster.”

According to a Tufts Center for State Analysis report, both short- and long-term impacts would severely erode municipalities’ tax bases. The value of rental properties depends on their ability to generate revenue, and therefore limiting that revenue and a landlord’s ability to charge rent in line with costs will make properties less valuable. This proposed ballot question will acutely harm home values because Bay State homes would no longer be able to be rented out at an amount that would cover necessary costs, and losing the ability to rent out single-family homes would lessen home values.

“Bringing back failed policies like rent control will have a devastating impact on our city, and this eye-opening report shows just how devastating it will be,” said Mayor Patrick M. Keefe Jr. of Revere. “A 10 to 15 percent cut to our tax base would force higher tax rates to those who can least afford it or deep cuts to core city services – unacceptable options for the people of Revere and me.”

The report states that if the ballot question were to pass, a permanent decline in residential tax collections would occur. In the short-term, this would mean a 6-8 percent shortfall in municipal budgets and eventually an 8-18 percent shortfall.

“Housing affordability is a real and serious challenge in Holyoke, across Western Massachusetts, and throughout the Commonwealth. Our families feel it every day, and we need real solutions that help people stay in their homes and strengthen our communities,” said Mayor Josh Garcia of Holyoke. “This report makes clear that this ballot question on rent control isn’t the answer ... When property values decline, local tax bases shrink, putting pressure on essential services like police, fire, schools, and infrastructure. Cities like ours already struggle with inadequate revenue to meet basic municipal needs ... Holyoke can’t afford the risks that come with this ballot measure,” Garcia concludes.

The report, “Untold Threat: Rent Control Ballot Question Will Imperil Municipal Budgets,” analyzes rent control and its effect on every city and town in Massachusetts. It concludes that losses would continue to grow over time in every municipality, with an average of 13 percent decrease to property values. Municipalities will be poised to choose between accepting a permanent decline in residential tax collections, up to 18 percent, or raising tax rates to compensate for the shortfall.

Opposition to the rent control ballot initiative, known as “Housing for Massachusetts,” is led by a coalition of Massachusetts residents, small property owners, family-owned real estate companies, affordable housing developers, and housing advocates. According to the organization’s website, its mission is to educate the public and advocate for policies that promote housing production across the Commonwealth, with the goal of improving availability and affordability for all residents. Additional information is available at HousingforMass.com